As you can see from the video below, we have more moisture coming from the GoM later today.
As you can see from the video below, we have more moisture coming from the GoM later today.
This weather looks like garbage. If you can, stay in. If you can’t, find a puddle and play. — If you have to get wet, may as well enjoy it.
Forecast from the NWS:
Showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
The projected path of the storm has changed very little over the last 24 hours, and landfall at Dulac/Cocodrie is imminent. By the time you read this, Cristobal could be on land.
With the forward movement of the storm, the storm surge will not be as severe as it could be, but areas outside levy protection are expected to experience about 4 feet of water.
Winds at landfall should be around 50 mph, which is lower than the projected 60 mph.
Rain will be heavy, but coming in bands. Cristobal does not present as a well organized storm — which is good for us.
IMHO, late this evening, we should be in a good position, stormwise. The only thing that could change that is if the storm would stall. Which, there is no indication that it will do that.
I don’t have a Google Map made up. I need to work on automating it. I don’t have enough coffee in my body to do it this morning. ugh.
Thanks,
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot
Please, forgive the rudimentary nature of the tracking map, I’m trying something new.
Looks like Cristobal is going to be paying us a visit. Landfall is projected to be at Cocodrie, LA, about 11 am, Sunday, June 7, 2020, with winds of 60 mph.
[Google_Maps_WD id=2 map=1]
My eyes are now focused on this storm. If you have interests in the Bayou Region of Southeast Louisiana outside the Morganza Levy system, you should too.
The key indicator for areas east of the storm will be the rate of travel. Currently the storm is over land and will be for several more hours. Once Cristobal is over open water, rate of travel will determine the storm surge pushed.
Think of blowing on a bowl of water. Blow too little, nothing happens. Blow to much, and you just get ripples. Blow at the right speed, and you can push a wave. This is how the storm pushes a surge. The most desirable outcome is ripples caused by a fast moving storm. If the storm is too slow, it strengthens. The surge won’t be so bad, but then the key destructive force becomes high winds and flooding due to excessive rain.
I’ve been producing this report once a day for the last few days. I will attempt to release one about mid-day, or after the storm is over open water and moving. We want this storm to move fast.
Imagery below.
Thanks for reading,
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot
2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico later today and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm
force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the
Florida Big Bend. These hazards will arrive well in advance of and
extend well east of Cristobal’s center. Storm surge and tropical
storm watches will likely be issued for a portion of the U.S. Gulf
Coast later today.
3. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast from
east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 18.8N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER
36H 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 07/0600Z 25.7N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH…OVER WATER
60H 07/1800Z 27.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 08/0600Z 29.6N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
96H 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 40.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky