Monthly Archives: May 2022

Agatha: Potential Pacific-GoM Crossover

I’ve tracked many different storms over the years, but never one that started in the Pacific and then came over into the Gulf of Mexico and re-developed. Will Agatha be my first? I guess I’ll have to just track and find out.

Nothing to worry about at the moment for the Gulf. However, we are watching the development of Agatha. Currently, there is only a 40% chance of development for the Gulf and IF that happens, it could threaten the NW Gulf Coast by the end of this week (Friday, June 3rd, 2022)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop 
across Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the southwest 
Gulf of Mexico in a few days, partially related to the remnants of 
Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Some gradual development 
is possible within this system in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico 
around mid-week or in the northwest Caribbean by the latter part of 
this week as it drifts eastward or northeastward.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rains will be possible across southern 
Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize through the 
week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown

Loop Current and 1000 lb Gorillas

The Loop Current, a fueler of monster storms in Gulf, looks a lot like it did in 2005

This is an issue that I have. The media is claiming the “Loop Current” is a 500 lb gorilla that no one talks about. Incidentally, it appears to be behaving a lot like it did in 2005 (Katrina). The reason no one talks about it? You got me. They are the media, they can drive the conversation. But, instead, they call it the 500 lb gorilla that no one talks about. Sounds like the author(s) have an issue with their editor or publisher. Generate the lines and have them published!

My 500 lb gorilla, and why the title is 1000 lb gorillas, is that no one has news subscriptions any more. My home subscribes to 3 different news sources in addition to the video news services provided through the various streaming platforms I have coming into Jay’s Cafe’.

I don’t know how a public can remain informed about anything, including weather anomolies unless they are being informed by legitimate news providers that report on science- or fact-based information. In South Louisana, it is critical for us to stay informed. The mantra of this site is: “Be Wise. Be Safe. Be Informed.” If you are not informed, you are not making a decision. Decisions are being made for you.

Here at Jay’s Cafe’, we make fact-based, science- and mathematical-based decisions. We don’t just parrot what some free network-jockey is telling me to say.

Just my two ticks on the barometer.

Thanks for reading,

Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot

Non-Alarmist, Non-Clickbait

Bruce Katz called out “social-media” weathermen as “click-bait.” In many, many ways I agree with him. It is for that particular reason that I have been building this site, in-between medical issues, for years now. I don’t get into click bait. Nor do I get into the alarmist nature of weather analysist junkies. Click-bait weathermen entice followers with alarmist claims to pull you to their sites so they can present you with a number of advertisements. Jayctheriot.com and my affiliated websites have 0 advertisements. I am personally funded. I don’t even want personal donations. My entire purpose is an attempt to make sense out of what weather and environmental data is readily available from open sources, free to the public and to try out my programming and mathematical skills.

Personally, I’ve lost considerable holdings in a number of different storms throughout my life. While seeing the devastation caused by these storms I also understand the tremendous resources it takes to evacuate and prepare for these storms. Therefore, my calls to action and my analysis tend to be on the conservative side. Living in a fortress of our own building, I don’t generally evacuate. After my experiences in my home in the eye-wall of the strongest storm to ever hit the Louisiana coast, I will likely never leave my home during a storm again. My calls for others to take action are rabidly conservative.

In the end, I attempt to make sense of the data, without imbuing my own desires or passions. I attempt to look at the data emotionless and make statements that are truthful and non-aligned with any will or desire to make money by providing others the opportunity to participate in the scourge of the web, clickbait.

Thanks for reading,
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot

Gulf of Mexico Buoy Data Aggregation: Purpose and Intent

View the page here

Often, buoys surrounding the mainland report weather data to the National Data Buoy Center. I love the data… but the page has a lot to be desired. The page is an attempt to deliver an enormous amount of weather data in the most efficient method they know. However, IMHO, the efficiency is at the sacrifice of usability by the common man, you and me (and a lot of others.)

In developing this page, it is my intent and purpose to manipulate the available data into graphical representations such as maps, charts and graphs that are specific to a user-chosen region.

Additionally, I have this idea that the data can be webbed into an early warning system for those storms that pop-up just off the coast and are often missed by traditional meteorological analysis. The concept is simple — if two or more adjacent buoys exhibit a rapid change in a data point, then an alarm will be raised. The reason two or more buoys are needed is to provide a cross reference as often data will be stale or just plain garbage.

The coding is in my head. I’m working to get it out and through my hands and onto my servers. The referenced page above is the start of a long journey. I pray that it may be a valid enough journey to show worth and others, much better skilled than I, will take the idea and the work and run with it. Feel free to contact me personally using jay@jayctheriot.com if you have any questions.

All the data is open and free. Provided by the various governments. I’m considering my code the same. I have a neuro-muscular disorder that will eventually rob me of my ability to code. I don’t wish my ideas to die with that ability. I am just jubilant that I have been granted a respite and can do what I’m doing now. I don’t know how long it will last, but I plan on coding as much as I can until I can’t.

Thanks for reading, In Christ,

Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot