The official JayCTheriot.Com forecast sorta flies in the face of the current guidance. I think this is because I’m looking out about 10 days and that is a no-no.
My brain is forecasting a storm rapidly developing in the south-western Gulf of Mexico next weekend and then slamming into either the Mexican Gulf coast or the coast of Texas around Corpus Christi.
There is a lot of activity, heat and moisture in the Gulf. There is a lot of activity and heat in the Caribbean.
I propose that the Caribbean will sustain the small disturbance until it reaches the Yucatan Penninsula. Once it crosses the Yucatan over into the Bay of Campeche, and into the Gulf of Mexico, it will reach considerably wet and hot air. I would guess that these with be the fuel needed for rapid intensification of the storm leading it to slam into the Mexican or southern Texas coast around Corpus Christi.
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist. I have BS (H) in Mathematics, focusing on Abelian Groups. Use this analysis to bolster your own decisions. At this time, my status would be “Alert and Aware” but not freaking out. There is a lot of time between now and then, and much could happen. The current line of thought is that the system will not congeal into a cohesive force. I’ve lost everything multiple times. I like to be aware of the potential for destruction long before it arrives. Cheers!