For the Coastal Weather Anomaly Advance Detection System (CWAADS) to make any sense, several assumptions must be made to provide a reliable and valid mathematical foundation.
- Buoy data is inherently suspect and contains error.
- The error of individual sensors is more reliable than the actual data.
- A change in the reported values will reflect a change in the real, and unapproachable, environmental data.
- A data point does not exist in a vacuum. There are historical and proximal data sources to take into account as well as the direct source.
- Thus, which each reported value, there are now all data points in the vicinity as well as the historical deltas for each of the data values for each proximal data point.
Mathematical Hypothesis:
By looking at the delta of a data value from a buoy and the deltas from the proximal buoys, a mathematical foundation for analysis can be determined reflecting real changes in the environment with an increased degree of accuracy.
Definition of Weather Anomaly: a departure of a standard deviation, an arbitrary milestone, from historical and proximity deltas.
Jay C. Theriot, 7/15/2022
A Suspected Weather Anomaly is defined as a departure of at least 1/2 a standard deviation from historical and proximity deltas
Intellectual property of Jay C. Theriot, © 2022