Atlantic

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Posted on Monday September 26, 2022

000
ABNT20 KNHC 262341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ian, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms. While the
system has not become better organized today, environmental
conditions are expected to be sufficiently conducive for the system
to become a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Further development will become less likely by the end of the week
due to strong upper-level winds. The disturbance is forecast to
meander for the next day or two and then turn north-northwestward by
early Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Posted on Monday September 26, 2022

000
AXNT20 KNHC 262259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Sep 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

IAN

Hurricane Ian is centered near 20.3N 83.2W at 26/2100 UTC or 130
nm SE of the western tip of Cuba, moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Maximum seas with this system are
expected to reach 27 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection prevails from 17N-28N between 76W-87W. On the forecast
track, the center of Ian is expected to move near or over western
Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida
Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday into Thursday. Swells generated by Ian are affecting
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward
to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras,
Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread
northward along the west coast of Florida through Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more details.

Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOW

An area of low pressure with 1008 mb located several hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, near 14N36W, continues to
produce scattered moderate convection from 12N to 16N and between
33W and 39W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that
fresh to strong winds are occurring in the northern and eastern
quadrants. Seas are 8-9 ft. Despite the proximity of nearby dry
air, upper-level winds appear generally conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next couple of days as the system meanders over the central
tropical Atlantic. By the end of this week, upper-level winds are
forecast to become less favorable for development as the system
begins to move slowly north-northwestward. There is a high chance
of tropical formation within the next 48 hours.
Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following
website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2,
for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

No tropical waves are present at this time.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 17N17W to 10N22W to 14N30W. The ITCZ extends from
11N45W to 13N60W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
09N to 16N and W of 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO…

Please read the Special Features section for details regarding
Hurricane Ian.

A surface trough is analyzed near the coasts of Tamaulipas and
Veracruz. Scattered showers are noted near the trough axis. To the
east, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail
across the Florida peninsula and SE Gulf waters related to
Hurricane Ian. Surface and satellite-derived wind data indicate
that moderate or weaker winds prevail across the Gulf, except for
fresh to strong NW winds in the far W Gulf and fresh to strong NE
winds the far SE Gulf. Seas across the basin are in the 1-3 ft
range.

For the forecast, Hurricane Ian is expected to intensify rapidly
through the next 24 hours. Ian will move to near 21.7N 83.8W
tonight as a major hurricane, cross western Cuba and reach near
23.6N 84W Tue afternoon, reach near 25.3N 83.9W Tue night, reach
near 27.5N 83.2W Wed night, near 28.1N 82.9W Thu afternoon, then
continue moving NNE and inland across N Florida Thu night to early
Fri morning. Expect hazardous conditions in the southeastern Gulf
and Straits of Florida beginning before midnight tonight, then
spreading north and northwestward across the E and central Gulf
Tue through early Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Ian.

Outside of the influence of Hurricane Ian, fairly tranquil
conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea. A weak pressure
gradient result in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds
in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-6
ft. Light to gentle southerly winds and seas of 1-3 ft are found
in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Hurricane Ian is expected to intensify rapidly
through the next 24 hours. Ian will move to near 21.7N 83.8W
tonight as a major hurricane, cross western Cuba and reach near
23.6N 84W Tue afternoon, near 25.3N 83.9W Tue night, then veer NNE
across the E Gulf of Mexico, reaching near 27.5N 83.2W Wed night
and inland across N Florida Thu night to early Fri morning.
Hazardous marine conditions will prevail in the NW Caribbean
through Tue evening, before winds and seas gradually subside as
Ian moves N of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Ian and on an area of low pressure well west of the
Cabo Verde islands that has potential to develop into a tropical
depression this week.

A surface trough near South Florida and divergence aloft result
in scattered to numerous moderate convection affecting the western
Atlantic mainly W of 73W. showers near the NW Bahamas and off SE
Florida. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 32N61W to
30N66W. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail W
of 60W.

In the north-central tropical Atlantic, a large swell region is
producing seas of 8-10 ft N of 20N and between 35W and 60W. Winds
in these waters are mainly moderate to locally fresh. Meanwhile,
the remnants of Hermine are located near 25N22W and a surface
trough extends from the low pressure to 20N26W. The pressure
gradient between a strong high pressure north of Azores and lower
pressures associated with the remnants of Hermine and NW Africa
result in fresh to strong NE winds N of 25N and E of 30W.

The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad ridge that maintains
fairly tranquil weather conditions. In these waters, moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, Hurricane Ian is expected to intensify rapidly
through the next 24 hours. Ian will move to near 21.7N 83.8W
tonight as a major hurricane, cross western Cuba and reach near
23.6N 84W Tue afternoon, reach near 25.3N 83.9W Tue night, reach
near 27.5N 83.2W Wed night, near 28.1N 82.9W Thu afternoon, then
continue moving NNE and inland across N Florida Thu night to early
Fri morning. Strong southeasterly winds occurring well to the E
of Ian are expected to impact the Atlc waters W of 76W as Ian
moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue afternoon through Fri night.
Tropical storm force winds are currently forecast for the NE
Florida coastal waters early Thu through Fri evening.

$$
ERA
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