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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
Posted on Monday September 26, 2022

ABPZ20 KNHC 262338

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is located south of the southern coast
of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development and a tropical depression could form by the end
of this week while the system moves generally westward to
west-northwestward off the coast of southern and southwestern
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
Posted on Monday September 26, 2022

AXPZ20 KNHC 262110

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Sep 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N108W to 13N137W.
The ITCZ extends from 12N137W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 85W and
119W, and from 09N to 12N between 132W and 139W.


Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are expected to peak to 7 ft in
this area with the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds
are offshore Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in S-SW swell, except NW swell
offshore Baja California Norte, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will continue to
dominate the Baja California Norte offshore waters through mid-
week. Fresh N to NE winds will to pulse tonight in the region of
Tehuantepec, increasing to strong speeds Tue night and
continuing through the week. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere.


Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon
trough south of 05N or across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands
offshore waters, with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range, except 4-7 ft
offshore Colombia. North of 05N, winds are mainly light to gentle,
with seas of 5-6 ft in southerly swell. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted along the monsoon trough, with strongest
activity mainly N of 05N and E of 82W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue, while
southerly swell continues to propagate across the region. Winds
will diminish to gentle to moderate by the middle of the week,
then back to moderate to fresh for the end of the week. Seas to
8 ft are expected through the middle of the week in southerly
swell. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.


The 1010 mb remnant low of Newton is located near 16N119W with
scattered moderate within 60 nm of the center. Winds are expected
to be in the 20-25 kt range through tonight with seas to 7 ft. A
surface trough extends W of the previously mentioned low,
extending from 18N132W to 22N137W. Moderate winds and seas to 6
ft are near this feature, mainly north of 20N. Weak high pressure
is elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft
seas in SE-S swell prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough,
except mixed northerly and southerly swell north of 20N.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft in
southerly swell are south of the monsoon trough to the Equator
east of 110W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 6-7 ft seas
are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough, except to 8 ft along

For the forecast, the remnant low of Newton will dissipate to a
trough within the next couple of days with associated winds and
seas diminishing and subsiding. High pressure will dominate the
northern waters through the week. Pulses of cross-equatorial
southerly swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of
120W, and maintain seas ranging from 7-9 ft south of 10N through
Tue night, along with moderate to fresh southerly winds. Fairly
tranquil marine conditions may prevail across the open waters by
the end of the week.

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