Eastern Pacific Storm Feeds

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well offshore of the
coast of southwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development of
this system will be possible while it moves generally northwestward
during the middle and latter parts of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291544
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Sep 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A tropical wave is along 95W north of 07N to across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 88W and 100W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 140W from 03N to 16N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
18N and W of 130W.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 10N132W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N132W to 10N138W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 14N between 107W and 130W.

…OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO…

Surface ridging extends across the offshore waters of Mexico with
a surface trough along the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh to
strong N winds are noted in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW
swell offshore Baja California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere in the open
waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1-3 ft except 3-4 ft
near the entrance. A tropical wave is moving across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec as described above.

For the forecast, the NW swell offshore Baja California will
decay early this weekend. Otherwise, mainly moderate seas will
prevail. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, mainly at night, through the weekend. Fresh to
strong SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California
this evening through Sun night due to a passing pre-frontal
trough and weakening cold front. Winds may reach near gale force
Sat night. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere.

…OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR…

Mainly gentle winds are N of the monsoon trough with moderate
S-SW winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3-5 ft N of 07N as
well as offshore Colombia to the Azuero Peninsula, and 4-7 ft in
SE-S swell S of 07N, except 6-9 ft offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands, highest S of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are offshore Nicaragua
northward mainly due to a departing tropical wave as described
above.

For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the
offshore waters through the next several days. The southerly
swell will gradually decay into the weekend. Otherwise, expect
mainly moderate seas.

…REMAINDER OF THE AREA…

A tropical wave along 140W described above combined with high
pressure elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting
fresh to strong winds from 11N to 20N and W of 133W with locally
higher winds as depicted in a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere N of 11N and W of
125W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. A large area of
7-11 ft seas dominates the waters W of 110W in mixed SE and NW
swell, except up to 10-13 ft in the fresh to strong wind area
with additional support from NE to E wind waves. Seas are 7-10 ft
in more pure SE-S swell S of 02N. Seas are 4-6 ft across the
remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, the tropical wave will move W of 140W today.
Associated fresh to strong winds will diminish by early Sat.
Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail elsewhere through the
next several days. The elevated seas W of 110W will gradually
decay through the weekend. A decaying cold front will push S of
30N this weekend with seas building to around 8 ft just S of 30N
Sun night into early next week. The southerly swell will decay
slightly by the end of the weekend, however 7-9 ft seas will
linger S of the Equator through early next week.

$$
ERA