Category Archives: Tropical Storms

Cristobal – June 4, 2020, Morning

I think the largest concern with Cristobal examining the information currently available, will be from coastal flooding. All the forecasters are talking about flooding not an issue. IMHO, they are focused on non-coastal lands.

St. Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche and Plaquemines parishes should watch for the storm surge. I don’t believe it should be a major concern. However, in Terrebonne, our levy system has not been tested with a storm approaching us from the west.

If wise, the parish authorities will be monitoring and seeing what improvements could be made to the parish levy and drainage systems.

The following is from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020Satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico indicate
that Cristobal has resumed a southeastward drift and moved farther
inland. There is no data from near the core of the storm, so the
maximum intensity is set to a possibly generous 35 kt based on
continuity from the previous advisory and earlier scatterometer
data that showed 35 kt winds over water to the northwest of the
center.The initial motion is a drifting 125/2 kt. A slow eastward motion
is expected today. After that, southerly flow associated with a
strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing
mid-/upper-level trough over northern Gulf of Mexico should turn
Cristobal northward with some increase in forward speed. Later in
the forecast period, a north-northwestward or northward motion is
expected as Cristobal interacts with the trough, with most of the
track forecast guidance bringing the system to the northern Gulf
coast between 96-120 h. The new forecast track has no significant
changes from the previous track, and it lies near the various
consensus models.Cristobal should weaken to a depression in the next few hours as
the center drifts farther inland. Little subsequent change in
strength is likely through 24 h due to much of the circulation
remaining over water. By 36 h, the global model guidance suggest
that winds will increase over the Gulf of Mexico well northeast of
the center, so the new intensity forecast calls for Cristobal to
regain tropical storm status at that time. From 48-120 h, Cristobal
is forecast to interact with the trough over the Gulf of Mexico,
which is likely to cause dry air entrainment and some shear. The
intensity guidance suggests these conditions will allow only
gradual intensification, so the new forecast follows the trend of
the previous forecast in showing a peak intensity of 50 kt before
landfall on the northern Gulf coast.The global models indicate that Cristobal’s wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have again been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 36-72 hours. Indeed,
the models suggest that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf
coast the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the
center.

Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions
of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The
heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico
and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along
the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This
rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for
more information.

2. Even though Cristobal is inland, tropical storm conditions will
continue along and near the coast of Mexico for a few more hours,
especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern
Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along
portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan
in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 17.9N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
12H 04/1800Z 18.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 05/0600Z 18.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 05/1800Z 20.2N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 22.1N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
60H 06/1800Z 23.9N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 25.8N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

Wind Speed Probabilities
Animated GEOS COLOR, June 4, 2020, 8 am, NOAA.
Animated GEOS COLOR, June 4, 2020, 8 am, NOAA.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020…CRISTOBAL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES…SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.8N 92.1W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.35 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.8
North, longitude 92.1 West. Cristobal is moving toward the
southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the east this
afternoon. A motion toward the north-northeast and north is
expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center
will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move
inland over eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is
forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains
inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back
over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan…10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas…15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca…5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala…Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador…Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

GoM Cristobal Detail, June 3, 2020, 8 am, MyRadar

 

GoM Storm Cristobal, June 3, 2020, 8 am., NOAA
Gulf of Mexico GeoColor, June 3, 2020, 8 am. NOAA

TD 3, Northern Gulf Coast remain Vigilant, but not Reactive, Yet.

The current forecasts project uncertainty on speed and intensity of the storm. However, they are gathering a concensus on direction. TD 3 should be heading toward the Northern Gulf Coast, slowly. Looking at a possible Louisiana landing on Sunday or Monday. However, this date keeps getting pushed back with each report.

My advice is to maintain vigilance, but no action at the moment.

Globally enhanced from MyRadar – June 2, 2020, Morning

Screen Capture, CBS New Orleans News Caster, June 2, 2020

NOAA, Key Messages, June 2, 2020, am

Area of Interest – June 1, 2020

[php_everywhere]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently
located inland near the Guatemala-Yucatan Border. This large
disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward this morning,
followed by a northwestward motion later today, and the center of
the low pressure system could emerge over the southeastern Bay
of Campeche by this evening. If the remnants move back over water,
environmental conditions appear conducive to support some
development, and a new tropical depression could form while the
system moves little through the middle of this week. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue
over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize,
and western Honduras during the next few days. For additional
information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national
meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2020 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
————————————————————-
Arthur AR-thur Laura LOOR-ruh
Bertha BUR-thuh Marco MAR-koe
Cristobal krees-TOH-bahl Nana NA-na
Dolly DAH-lee Omar OH-mar
Edouard ed-DWARD Paulette pawl-LET
Fay fay Rene re-NAY
Gonzalo gohn-SAH-loh Sally SAL-ee
Hanna HAN-uh Teddy TEHD-ee
Isaias ees-ah-EE-ahs Vicky VIH-kee
Josephine JOH-seh-feen Wilfred WILL-fred
Kyle KY-ull

Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, already formed this year in
May. The next named storm that develops this season will be
Cristobal.

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM,
7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled
issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical
Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS
headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion,
and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours
for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special
advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of
significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

MyRadar global satellite enhanced radar imagery of the GOM and Yucatan. June 1, 2020, morning.
Animated GEOColor from NOAA, Monday, June 1, 2020, Morning

Tropical Depression One Forecast Advisory

Tropical Depression One – 2020

000
WTNT21 KNHC 162135 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
2100 UTC SAT MAY 16 2020

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WATCH END POINT TO SURF CITY IN SUMMARY

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK…INCLUDING PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.7N 78.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.4N 77.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.0N 76.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 37.1N 72.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 38.0N 68.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 78.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1…AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Click for more information