Not much changed except a weird distorted field of probability. This storm is expected to coalesce this weekend and max out at a tropical depression. Most likely it will become a rain maker for the Bahamas and/or Florida. There is a diminishing chance it will pose issues for the eastern Gulf coast.

Track dependent upon interaction of system with high pressure systems and islands. A slow storm could threaten the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where a faster storm could skim the eastern coast of Florida.

40% development in the next 7 days. Potential track recurves north, east of Florida.

Still watching. Scant chance -30%- of development over then next 7 days with no chance of development in the next 48 hours.