Wind Speed Probabilities§
Probability of 34 kt winds.
Probability of 50 kt winds,
Probability of 64 kt winds.
2020 Atlantic Storm Laura Category 3 Potential
Laura is in the process of growing from a minimal hurricane to a Category 3 within 48 hours. Although the forecast track is on the Texas/Louisiana border, we are a coastal community and coastal flooding should be expected. If the storm grows, as many have in the past, it may flood much of Southeastern Louisiana. Please, seek information from official sources. Don’t rely on any single source of information to help make family decisions. Even my direct reporting could be faulty. Others could be misleading.
The Gulf of Mexico is a fertile bed for rapid development. NHC’s forecaster discussions, not normally reported, have been suggesting the growing possibility of Laura growing to a Category 3 storm… Well, now the potential for a category 3 rating is in the official forecast.
Significant damage to persons, properties and coastal ecologies can and will occur if Laura follows the current NHC growth projections.
Now is the time for knowledge building and heightened awareness. Those in the path should evacuate if possible. Shelter in place in a strong building if you must. The first floor will flood and the second floor can inflict catastrophic damage for family members should the structure collapse. Be wise. Be safe. Be informed.
Weather.JayCTheriot.Com will continue to monitor and re-publish official information throughout this event. However, find alternative sources as my body may prevent me from doing what needs to be done.
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot
Below the double line, everything is generated from live raw data courtesy of NOAA and NHC with no interpretation. Please, use them at will.
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 22.9N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 23.8N 87.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 25.1N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 26.8N 92.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 29.3N 93.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 32.1N 93.7W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 37.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 39.0N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
INIT 25/0900Z 22.9N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 23.8N 87.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 25.1N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 26.8N 92.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 29.3N 93.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 32.1N 93.7W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 37.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 39.0N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Key Messages:
- Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus on the details of the official forecast given the typical
uncertainty in NHC’s 2-to-3 day track and intensity predictions. In addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura’s center along the Gulf Coast. - There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48 hours, and a storm surge watch is in effect for these areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
- Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane watch is in effect. Hurricane Warnings will likely be issued for a portion of that area later today.
- The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding, along with small streams overflowing their banks, will be increasing Wednesday night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor-to-isolated moderate river
flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday and Saturday.
2020 Marco 8/24, 10 am CDT
Wind shear decapitated Marco overnight. Although, the center of the storm is off the Southeast Louisiana coast, the mass of the storm is south of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. People and businesses should follow their local guidance in this area.
4 am tracking information
INIT 24/0900Z 27.6N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 28.6N 89.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 29.2N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
36H 25/1800Z 29.5N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 26/0600Z 29.4N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 26/1800Z…DISSIPATED
12H 24/1800Z 28.6N 89.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 29.2N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
36H 25/1800Z 29.5N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 26/0600Z 29.4N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 26/1800Z…DISSIPATED
I ask that you bare with me for a while as new technologies are integrated into my weather monitoring and analysis. There are many more things to be included. I desire to include as much timely information in these reports while maintaining intuitive use and understanding.
Feel free to like, share and comment your suggested improvements or inclusions.
More to come,
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot
Laura – Projected Track 7 am 8/24
Laura’s current track using data from NHC/NOAA. You may zoom-in onto the track of the storm and select the icons for additional information. I’m calling this prototype #3.
Feel free to share and/or comment your wishes.
Good luck, and stay safe.
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot
Wind Shear is a B*… just saying.
In the 10 pm, Aug. 23rd data released by NOAA, it appears that Marco is getting his head ripped off by wind shear. Currently about 30 kts, the shear is supposed to increase to about 40 knots and in 48 hours Marco will be completely torn to shreds.
Now, for a good night sleep and to focus on Laura.
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot
pardon me for not having graphics…. been a long day… It started in Long Beach, MS at 3 am.