Category Archives: Disturbance

June 18th, 2021, Buoy Data Analysis

The data available from the buoys is telling the strongest winds (sustained:20 knots, gusts:30 knots) are around the mouth of the Mississippi.

According to NHC/NOAA, the most likely path will take the center of circulation right over Houma.  However, with no eye, and the disturbance only generating a broad, loosely-organized rotation, it would be difficult for this storm to pose even a mild threat to Houma.

Further east, there are areas preparing for the possibility of 10 inches of rain an hour. The storm is radically lopsided to the east. Scant clouds appear to the west.

More to come. Thanks for reading.

Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot

June 16th, 2021 – Morning Update

2021-06-16-0615

There aren’t many differences from yesterday to this morning. NOAA is expecting the disturbance to be named on Friday. The pathway is the same: meandering up the coast until it becomes an issue for the northern GoM coast on late Thursday or overnight into Friday. No solid information on intensification forecast. The weak high pressure system is still helping prevent the disturbance from being anything to worry about. But, just stay aware and tuned in to your local forecast outlets.

I think we may be safe for a few more days.

Thanks for reading,

Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot

June 15th, Morning Outlook

The weather map looks terrible, but things don’t seem to be that bad. For one, there is a weak high pressure system hanging out in the central GoM until “Mid-Week,” according to NOAA. I understand that tomorrow is “hump day” and thus, mid-week. But, if you look at the satellite imagery the central portion of the GoM is clear with all the nasty stuff down by the Yucatan Peninsula.

The NHC is still rating it at a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days, but only 20% chance for the next two days. The data tells me that if there is going to be a storm, it will not develop for at least 3 days. During those three days, it will drift toward the Louisiana/Texas coasts.

Given the temperature of the GoM, I would expect rapid development after day 3 (Thursday). Hopefully, by then, it will be next to a coast, rapidly make landfall, and rapidly dissipate. Where the disturbance is, the proximity to the coast, and the pressure of the center will be the data points to watch and examine closely Thursday, June 17th.

We will likely have a fair amount of rain with this storm. It is hoarding a lot of moisture.

Below it the NHC’s GoM portion of the Atlantic Tropical Discussion from this morning.

Thanks for reading,
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot

A surface trough starts at the coast of Mexico near 22N98W, and
it continues to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near
20N95W, reaching 18N91W in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 60 nm on
either side of the line that runs from NW Guatemala, toward the
NNW, for 240 nm. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
elsewhere from 23N southward from 88W westward, in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Gradual development of this low pressure
center is possible during the next couple of days, while it
meanders near the coast of Mexico. The low pressure center
should begin to move northward by midweek. It is likely for a
tropical depression to form late in the week, when the low
pressure center moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America,
and in parts of southern Mexico, during the next several days.
It is possible that heavy rains may begin to impact parts of the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Friday. Please, consult all
weather bulletins from your local meteorological service for
more information.

An upper level trough is moving through the easternmost part of
the Gulf of Mexico, including on top of Florida. Precipitation:
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Bahamas from 25N
northward. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally
strong, are elsewhere from 20N northward from 70W westward in
the Atlantic Ocean, crossing Florida, and continuing to 92W in
the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure ridging will remain in the central Gulf of
Mexico into mid-week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds across the basin. Broad low pressure in the
Bay of Campeche should begin to move northward by midweek. It is
likely for a tropical depression to form late in the week, when
the low pressure center moves across the central or northwestern
Gulf of Mexico.

Bay of Campeche Disturbance

Basically, it’s too early to tell. The consensus is to check back on Wednesday. There is an area of weak high pressure in the central portion of the Gulf preventing rapid development. However, living in SELA, we don’t need rapid development to find ourselves in trouble. My recommendation is not to freak out, but just stay aware of the tropics. If by Wednesday you hear no more of this, then good. If we have development. Then we know what we have to do.

Below is the NHC Discussion and satellite images of the area of concern.

GULF OF MEXICO…

A broad 1008 mb surface low is centered over the Bay of Campeche
near 20N95W. A surface trough extends from 20N97W to the low to
18N92W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 18N to 23N between 94W and 98W. A 1015 mb high center is
analyzed near 26N90W with a ridge axis extending to the central
Texas coast and through the Straits of Florida. A complex of
scattered thunderstorms has moved from the lower Mississippi
Valley into the N central Gulf north of 27N between 85W and 90W.
Moderate anticyclonic winds are noted south of 23N and north of
27N, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere. Seas are
3 ft or less across the basin, except higher in and near any
convection.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the
central Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week
supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the
basin. A trough of low pressure that has formed over the Bay of
Campeche. Slow development is possible over the next several days
while the broad disturbance moves little, and a tropical
depression could form in this area by Thu or Fri. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of
southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.

Area of Interest – June 1, 2020

   
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently
located inland near the Guatemala-Yucatan Border. This large
disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward this morning,
followed by a northwestward motion later today, and the center of
the low pressure system could emerge over the southeastern Bay
of Campeche by this evening. If the remnants move back over water,
environmental conditions appear conducive to support some
development, and a new tropical depression could form while the
system moves little through the middle of this week. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue
over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize,
and western Honduras during the next few days. For additional
information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national
meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2020 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
————————————————————-
Arthur AR-thur Laura LOOR-ruh
Bertha BUR-thuh Marco MAR-koe
Cristobal krees-TOH-bahl Nana NA-na
Dolly DAH-lee Omar OH-mar
Edouard ed-DWARD Paulette pawl-LET
Fay fay Rene re-NAY
Gonzalo gohn-SAH-loh Sally SAL-ee
Hanna HAN-uh Teddy TEHD-ee
Isaias ees-ah-EE-ahs Vicky VIH-kee
Josephine JOH-seh-feen Wilfred WILL-fred
Kyle KY-ull

Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, already formed this year in
May. The next named storm that develops this season will be
Cristobal.

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM,
7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled
issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical
Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS
headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion,
and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours
for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special
advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of
significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

MyRadar global satellite enhanced radar imagery of the GOM and Yucatan. June 1, 2020, morning.
Animated GEOColor from NOAA, Monday, June 1, 2020, Morning