Sept. 22, 2022, 5 am Central – Invest 98

Invest 98 current imagery and analysis from NOAA.

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (noaa.gov)

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on 
Tropical Storm Gaston, located several hundred miles west of the 
Azores. 

1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical 
wave located over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea.  Although 
upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the 
upper-level wind pattern ahead of the system is forecast to become a 
little more favorable in a couple of days, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form at that time.  The disturbance is forecast to move 
west-northwestward across the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next 
day or two, and be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.  
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
are likely to affect the Windward Islands this morning. These 
impacts are likely to spread to northern Venezuela, northeastern 
Colombia, and the ABC island chain during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are 
associated with a tropical wave that is expected to move over the 
warm waters of the far eastern Atlantic later today.  Thereafter, 
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some 
development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend 
while the system moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the 
Cabo Verde Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Despite marginal 
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is 
possible over the next several days while it moves slowly 
northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

648 
AXNT20 KNHC 220451
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Sep 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Fiona is centered near 26.6N 71.2W at 22/0300 
UTC or 480 nm SW of Bermuda moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 934 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 
kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 
150 nm of the center in the E semicircle and 75 nm W semicircle. 
Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 300 nm NE 
quadrant, 240 nm SE quadrant, 90 nm SW quadrant and 120 nm NW 
quadrant. A Sofar drifting buoy measured significant wave 
heights of 38 ft at 21/1700 UTC. NOAA buoy 41047 at 27.5N 71.5W 
is measuring significant wave heights of 30 ft at 22/0340 UTC. 
Peak seas near Fiona are currently estimated to be 42 ft. On the 
forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just to the west 
of Bermuda tonight and approach Nova Scotia on Friday. Little 
change in strength is expected through early Friday. Please read 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 39.6N 38.0W at 22/0300 
UTC or 520 nm WNW of the Azores, moving ENE at 15 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted within 270 nm of the center 
in the NW quadrant, 30 nm SE quadrant, 60 nm SW quadrant and 180 
nm NW quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and 
Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W from 16N 
southward to eastern Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 210 nm either side of the wave 
axis, mainly south of 12N, including near the northeast coast of 
Venezuela. Isolated showers are north of 12N within 150 nm of 
the wave axis. A distinct surface trough is noted in recent 
ASCAT data with this tropical wave, and fresh winds cover the 
eastern Caribbean east of 66W. A tropical depression is likely 
to form as the disturbance moves WNW across the eastern 
Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and over the central 
Caribbean Sea this weekend. Regardless of development, locally 
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the Windward 
Islands through this morning, and northern Venezuela, 
northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain during the next 
couple of days. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone 
formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest 
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more 
details.

A tropical wave is analyzed over west Africa along 15W, moving W 
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted within 240 nm either side of the wave axis from 06N-22N. 
The tropical wave is forecast to move over the far eastern 
Atlantic waters later today. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, 
and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the 
system moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the Cabo 
Verde Islands. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during 
the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see the Special Features section above for a full 
description of the two tropical waves in the basin currently.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 
11N23W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10.5N 32.5W to 09N38W. The 
ITCZ continues from 09N38W to 10N51. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted within 210 nm of the low pressure 
center in its NW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is also 
seen to the south of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 
20W-32W. The 1010 mb low pressure center near 10.5N 32.5W has a 
low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 
hours as it moves slowly northwestward or northward over the 
tropical Atlantic.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf coast states. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail north of 25N, with light to gentle winds 
south of 25N. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the NW Gulf and
1-3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a relatively weak pressure gradient across the 
region will support mainly light to gentle variable winds 
through Mon morning with locally moderate winds during this 
period. A tropical wave, currently over the eastern Caribbean 
along 63W, is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone while 
over the Caribbean Sea, then approach the Yucatan Channel late 
Mon before moving into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next 
week. In advance of this system, moderate to fresh NE winds will 
develop over the southern half of the basin by Mon afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the 
strong tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea which has a 
high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the 
next 48 hours. Gentle winds cover most of the remainder of the 
basin, west of 67W. Seas are 4-7 ft east of 67W and 1-3 ft 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the tropical wave along 63W is likely to 
develop into a tropical cyclone by the time it reaches the 
central or western Caribbean in a few days. There is a chance it 
could strengthen as it approaches the Yucatan Channel late Mon. 
Therefore, increasing winds, seas and squalls can be expected 
with this system as it moves farther west in the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about Major Hurricane Fiona. The area of strong winds and high 
seas associated with Fiona currently extends from 22N-31N 
between 65W-76W. Fresh SE winds extend eastward to 60W and 
southeastward to the Caribbean. An area of convection is noted 
over Hispaniola and adjacent waters from 19N-22N between 
68W-74W. High pressure ridging prevails over the remainder of 
the basin, to the east of Fiona. Moderate trades prevail between 
22W-60W with seas of 3-6 ft. Fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are 
near the Windward Islands due to the aforementioned tropical 
wave. The latest ASCAT data shows fresh to strong NE winds off 
the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara, where seas are likely 
5-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, Major Hurricane Fiona will move to 
near 31N69W this evening and to near 35N65W Fri morning. Swells 
generated by Fiona will continue to spread westward across the 
SW Atlantic toward the NW Bahamas and the E coast of the United 
States during the next day or two. The swells could cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. A cold front 
will drop south of 31N over the north waters early on Fri 
through Sat night, followed by fresh northeast winds. Seas will 
remain high after Fiona leaves the area, due to the frontal 
passage. High pressure will build in behind the cold front.

$$
Hagen

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