Very active Atlantic and Caribbean. Thankfully, the Gulf of Mexico is silent now. Next week we may see South to Central Florida get attacked by a Category 2 Hurricane.
|Tropical Weather Outlook Text|
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fiona, located north of Bermuda, on Tropical Storm Gaston, located near the central Azores, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Nine, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Jamaica over the eastern Caribbean Sea. 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located between the Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa is showing increased signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for further development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves northward at about 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of west Africa. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Despite marginal environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it drifts northwestward or northward over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. Forecaster Reinhart
000 AXNT20 KNHC 231043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Sep 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Hurricane Fiona is centered near 33.8N 66.8W at 23/0900 UTC or 130 nm NW of Bermuda moving NNE at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 300 nm NE quadrant, 240 nm SE quadrant, and 150 nm W semicircle. Seas of 12 ft or higher are occurring within 390 nm all quadrants, except 250 nm NE quadrant with peak seas near 50 ft. Fiona passed just W of Bermuda early this morning and will continue moving away from the island today. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Bermuda. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach eastern Nova Scotia tonight, and a Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Nova Scotia and adjacent portions of Atlantic Canada. Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid- Atlantic and northeast coasts of the United States and Atlantic Canada today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 40.5N 29.6W at 23/0900 UTC or 120 nm NNW of Faial Island In The Central Azores moving ESE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 210 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 150 nm SE quadrant and 120 nm NW quadrant. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Azores, where the forecast track keeps the center of Gaston in the vicinity through Saturday. In addition to gusty winds, heavy rain and swells will impact portions of the Azores into the weekend. The swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Newly-formed Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 13.9N 68.6W at 23/0900 UTC or 530 nm ESE of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 68W and 72W. Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding along with possible mudslides of higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao into tonight. Heavy rain will likely spread into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into the weekend. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm later today. Interests in Cuba should closely monitor this depression. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Eastern Atlantic Low Pressure: A 1005 mb low pressure center near 17N20W, associated with a tropical wave along 20W is moving WNW at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted with this low from 13N to 20N between 17W and 22W. This convection has become better organized early this morning, despite the overall circulation of the low being quite broad. Environmental conditions are generally favorable for development over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as the low turns more NW to NNW at 5 to 10 kt, parallel to the coast of Africa and E of the Cabo Verde Islands. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please read the Special Features section above for information about the tropical wave associated with low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes off the west coast of southern Mauritania near 17N16W to a 1005 mb low pressure near 17N20W to a 1009 nm low pressure near 11N35W. The ITCZ then extends from 12N37W to 07N48W to 08N60W. Aside from convection associated with the 1006 mb low described in the Special Features section above. numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 30W and 37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 24W and 30W and from 10N to 16N between 49W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 mb surface high pressure is centered just offshore of SE Louisiana near 29N89W. This is bringing benign weather, with gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, newly-formed Tropical Depression Nine, located early this morning in the SE Caribbean Sea, is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves NW toward the NW Caribbean into the weekend. By the start of next weeks, impacts from this system may begin to affect portions of the SE Gulf of Mexico, in the form of increasing wind and seas. Otherwise, a relatively weak pressure gradient across the Gulf waters will support mainly gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for details about nearly formed Tropical Depression Nine. The east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate convection S of 17N, mainly within about 90 nm of the Central American coast. Light to gentle winds prevail across the western and central Caribbean, west of 72W. Seas in this area are 1-2 ft. Fresh to near-gale force winds and seas of 5-10 ft prevail over the eastern Caribbean in association with the tropical depression. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine has formed early this morning near 13.9N 68.6W 1006 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts 40 kt. Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.4N 70.2W this afternoon and move to 14.7N 72.6W Sat morning. Nine will be at 14.8N 75.0W Sat afternoon, 15.5N 77.1W Sun morning, and 17.0N 78.8W Sun afternoon. Nine will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.9N 80.5W Mon morning and change little in intensity as it moves north of the Cayman Islands early Tue. Deteriorating marine conditions can be expected near the track of Nine, including the central Caribbean today and Saturday, and portions of the northwest Caribbean Sunday and Monday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will impact Curacao and Aruba today and Jamaica this weekend. Interests in the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress of Nine. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston, and low pressure east of the Cabo Verde Islands likely to become a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. Away from these special features, surface ridging prevails across most of the basin, north of 20N and east of 60W, anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure near 33N38W. Mostly moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the central Atlantic between 40W-60W. Over the E Atlantic, winds are fresh with 5-7 ft seas. A line of thunderstorms about 30 nm wide extends from 25N67W to 27.5N65W. Disorganized convection associated with broad 1009 mb low pressure centered near 12N36W is occurring in an environment marginally favorable for tropical development. Thus, some slow development is possible with this low over the next several days as it drifts NW or N over the central Tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 5 days. For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Fiona is beginning to move N of the area early this morning, and is near 33.8N 66.8W 936 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNE at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt. Category 3 Fiona will move to 37.9N 63.9W this afternoon, 43.2N 62.0W Sat morning, then become extratropical and move to 47.0N 61.1W Sat afternoon. Fiona will weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 50.1N 59.7W Sun morning, 53.8N 58.4W Sun afternoon, and 57.5N 58.3W Mon morning. Fiona will change little in intensity as it moves through the Labrador Sea early Tue. Swells generated by Fiona will continue to spread northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts of the United States over the next day or so. The swells will also reach Atlantic Canada on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Impacts from newly formed Tropical Depression Nine, currently in the SE Caribbean Sea, may affect areas offshore Florida early next week. $$ KONARIK