Category Archives: Depression

Cristobal, June 5, 2020 – Projected Landfall – Morgan City – 60 mph – 1 am Monday

My eyes are now focused on this storm. If you have interests in the Bayou Region of Southeast Louisiana outside the Morganza Levy system, you should too.

The key indicator for areas east of the storm will be the rate of travel. Currently the storm is over land and will be for several more hours. Once Cristobal is over open water, rate of travel will determine the storm surge pushed.

Think of blowing on a bowl of water. Blow too little, nothing happens. Blow to much, and you just get ripples. Blow at the right speed, and you can push a wave. This is how the storm pushes a surge. The most desirable outcome is ripples caused by a fast moving storm. If the storm is too slow, it strengthens. The surge won’t be so bad, but then the key destructive force becomes high winds and flooding due to excessive rain.

I’ve been producing this report once a day for the last few days. I will attempt to release one about mid-day, or after the storm is over open water and moving. We want this storm to move fast.

Imagery below.

Thanks for reading,
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot

Key Messages:
1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions
of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The
heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico
and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along
the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This
rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more
information.

2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico later today and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm
force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the
Florida Big Bend. These hazards will arrive well in advance of and
extend well east of Cristobal’s center. Storm surge and tropical
storm watches will likely be issued for a portion of the U.S. Gulf
Coast later today.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast from
east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 18.8N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER
36H 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 07/0600Z 25.7N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH…OVER WATER
60H 07/1800Z 27.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 08/0600Z 29.6N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
96H 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 40.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Image of the 5-day cone of probabily
3- and 5- day cones of probability for Cristobal, June 5, 2020, 8 am.

GeoColor, GOM, animated, June 5, 2020, NHC

Global Enhanced Radar – MyRadar, June 8, 2020, 8 am. Cristobal

TD 3, Northern Gulf Coast remain Vigilant, but not Reactive, Yet.

The current forecasts project uncertainty on speed and intensity of the storm. However, they are gathering a concensus on direction. TD 3 should be heading toward the Northern Gulf Coast, slowly. Looking at a possible Louisiana landing on Sunday or Monday. However, this date keeps getting pushed back with each report.

My advice is to maintain vigilance, but no action at the moment.

Globally enhanced from MyRadar – June 2, 2020, Morning

Screen Capture, CBS New Orleans News Caster, June 2, 2020

NOAA, Key Messages, June 2, 2020, am

Tropical Depression One Forecast Advisory

Tropical Depression One – 2020

000
WTNT21 KNHC 162135 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
2100 UTC SAT MAY 16 2020

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WATCH END POINT TO SURF CITY IN SUMMARY

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK…INCLUDING PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.7N 78.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.4N 77.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.0N 76.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 37.1N 72.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 38.0N 68.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 78.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1…AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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