Category Archives: Cristobal

Cristobal, June 7th, Landfall Imminent

The projected path of the storm has changed very little over the last 24 hours, and landfall at Dulac/Cocodrie is imminent. By the time you read this, Cristobal could be on land.

With the forward movement of the storm, the storm surge will not be as severe as it could be, but areas outside levy protection are expected to experience about 4 feet of water.

Winds at landfall should be around 50 mph, which is lower than the projected 60 mph.

Rain will be heavy, but coming in bands. Cristobal does not present as a well organized storm — which is good for us.

IMHO, late this evening, we should be in a good position, stormwise. The only thing that could change that is if the storm would stall. Which, there is no indication that it will do that.

I don’t have a Google Map made up. I need to work on automating it. I don’t have enough coffee in my body to do it this morning. ugh.

Thanks,
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 07/0900Z 27.3N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 28.7N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 30.8N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
36H 08/1800Z 33.3N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 36.6N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
60H 09/1800Z 40.9N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
72H 10/0600Z 46.0N 89.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 52.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z…MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW$$
Forecaster Beven

GeoColor, GoM, June 8, 2020, NOAA

Cristobal 2020, Sat. June 6, Morning, Projected Path

Please, forgive the rudimentary nature of the tracking map, I’m trying something new.

Looks like Cristobal is going to be paying us a visit. Landfall is projected to be at Cocodrie, LA, about 11 am, Sunday, June 7, 2020, with winds of 60 mph.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 06/0900Z 23.8N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 25.0N 90.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 26.8N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 28.8N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 30.6N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
60H 08/1800Z 33.2N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 09/0600Z 36.4N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
96H 10/0600Z 45.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 52.5N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

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GeoColor image of GoM showing Cristobal, June 6, 2020, NOAA

Cristobal, June 5, 2020 – Projected Landfall – Morgan City – 60 mph – 1 am Monday

My eyes are now focused on this storm. If you have interests in the Bayou Region of Southeast Louisiana outside the Morganza Levy system, you should too.

The key indicator for areas east of the storm will be the rate of travel. Currently the storm is over land and will be for several more hours. Once Cristobal is over open water, rate of travel will determine the storm surge pushed.

Think of blowing on a bowl of water. Blow too little, nothing happens. Blow to much, and you just get ripples. Blow at the right speed, and you can push a wave. This is how the storm pushes a surge. The most desirable outcome is ripples caused by a fast moving storm. If the storm is too slow, it strengthens. The surge won’t be so bad, but then the key destructive force becomes high winds and flooding due to excessive rain.

I’ve been producing this report once a day for the last few days. I will attempt to release one about mid-day, or after the storm is over open water and moving. We want this storm to move fast.

Imagery below.

Thanks for reading,
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot

Key Messages:
1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions
of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The
heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico
and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along
the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This
rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more
information.

2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico later today and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm
force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the
Florida Big Bend. These hazards will arrive well in advance of and
extend well east of Cristobal’s center. Storm surge and tropical
storm watches will likely be issued for a portion of the U.S. Gulf
Coast later today.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast from
east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 18.8N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER
36H 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 07/0600Z 25.7N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH…OVER WATER
60H 07/1800Z 27.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 08/0600Z 29.6N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
96H 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 40.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Image of the 5-day cone of probabily
3- and 5- day cones of probability for Cristobal, June 5, 2020, 8 am.

GeoColor, GOM, animated, June 5, 2020, NHC

Global Enhanced Radar – MyRadar, June 8, 2020, 8 am. Cristobal

Cristobal – June 4, 2020, Morning

I think the largest concern with Cristobal examining the information currently available, will be from coastal flooding. All the forecasters are talking about flooding not an issue. IMHO, they are focused on non-coastal lands.

St. Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche and Plaquemines parishes should watch for the storm surge. I don’t believe it should be a major concern. However, in Terrebonne, our levy system has not been tested with a storm approaching us from the west.

If wise, the parish authorities will be monitoring and seeing what improvements could be made to the parish levy and drainage systems.

The following is from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020Satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico indicate
that Cristobal has resumed a southeastward drift and moved farther
inland. There is no data from near the core of the storm, so the
maximum intensity is set to a possibly generous 35 kt based on
continuity from the previous advisory and earlier scatterometer
data that showed 35 kt winds over water to the northwest of the
center.The initial motion is a drifting 125/2 kt. A slow eastward motion
is expected today. After that, southerly flow associated with a
strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing
mid-/upper-level trough over northern Gulf of Mexico should turn
Cristobal northward with some increase in forward speed. Later in
the forecast period, a north-northwestward or northward motion is
expected as Cristobal interacts with the trough, with most of the
track forecast guidance bringing the system to the northern Gulf
coast between 96-120 h. The new forecast track has no significant
changes from the previous track, and it lies near the various
consensus models.Cristobal should weaken to a depression in the next few hours as
the center drifts farther inland. Little subsequent change in
strength is likely through 24 h due to much of the circulation
remaining over water. By 36 h, the global model guidance suggest
that winds will increase over the Gulf of Mexico well northeast of
the center, so the new intensity forecast calls for Cristobal to
regain tropical storm status at that time. From 48-120 h, Cristobal
is forecast to interact with the trough over the Gulf of Mexico,
which is likely to cause dry air entrainment and some shear. The
intensity guidance suggests these conditions will allow only
gradual intensification, so the new forecast follows the trend of
the previous forecast in showing a peak intensity of 50 kt before
landfall on the northern Gulf coast.The global models indicate that Cristobal’s wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have again been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 36-72 hours. Indeed,
the models suggest that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf
coast the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the
center.

Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions
of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The
heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico
and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along
the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This
rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for
more information.

2. Even though Cristobal is inland, tropical storm conditions will
continue along and near the coast of Mexico for a few more hours,
especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern
Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along
portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan
in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 17.9N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
12H 04/1800Z 18.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 05/0600Z 18.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 05/1800Z 20.2N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 22.1N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
60H 06/1800Z 23.9N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 25.8N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

Wind Speed Probabilities
Animated GEOS COLOR, June 4, 2020, 8 am, NOAA.
Animated GEOS COLOR, June 4, 2020, 8 am, NOAA.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020…CRISTOBAL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES…SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.8N 92.1W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.35 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.8
North, longitude 92.1 West. Cristobal is moving toward the
southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the east this
afternoon. A motion toward the north-northeast and north is
expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center
will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move
inland over eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is
forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains
inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back
over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan…10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas…15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca…5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala…Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador…Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

GoM Cristobal Detail, June 3, 2020, 8 am, MyRadar

 

GoM Storm Cristobal, June 3, 2020, 8 am., NOAA
Gulf of Mexico GeoColor, June 3, 2020, 8 am. NOAA