2021 Atlantic Storm Ida

Click on the link to access the most current information and contents. Updates are posted shortly after they are released at 4 and 10 am/pm for the duration of the storm. I will be  tracking and analyzing 2021 Ida as it approaches using some methods I’ve been working on.  The tracks from the NHC have been refined over the years to have very little error.  However, using surface-based data from buoys and airports, it is possible to increase the accuracy of the winds, strength, storm surge and overall ferocity of the storm.  This analysis is still in development and the products created will not be the quality I wish, but they will be refined over time.  Follow this page for updates, and as previously stated, don’t just scroll on FB or other social media. You have to click on the link to access recent information as FB takes a snapshot and only renders that once, missing the current information.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

The following information is from Page 28, of the 2019 TPCG Emergency Guide (link) available at the Terrebonne Office of Emergency Preparedness website (link).

 PHASED EVACUATION During a threat of a hurricane, a phased evacuation will be based on geographic location and time in which tropical storm winds are forecasted to reach the affected areas. PHASE I 50 Hours before onset of tropical storm winds. Includes areas south of the Intracoastal Waterway. These areas are outside any levee protection system and are vulnerable to Category 1 and 2 storms. During Phase I, there are no route restrictions. PHASE II 40 Hours before onset of tropical storm winds. Includes areas south of the Mississippi River which are levee protected but remain vulnerable to Category 2 or higher storms. During Phase II, there are no route restrictions. PHASE III 30 Hours before onset of tropical storm winds. Includes areas on the East Bank of the Mississippi River in the New Orleans Metropolitan Area which are within levee protection system but remain vulnerable to a slow-moving Category 3 or any Category 4 or 5 storm. During Phase III, certain routes will be directed and the Contraflow Plan implemented

Oct. 1, 2020, Morning Update: Time to watch the gulf again

As you can see in the map above, we’ve got two areas of concern in the Caribbean Sea heading our way.

1. Showers and thunderstorms located over the west-central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a tropical wave. A broad area of low
pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the northwest
Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity
of the wave as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development thereafter in that region,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the
system meanders. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and
western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
2. Another tropical wave located a couple hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized
shower activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward
during the next several days where environmental conditions could
become a little more conducive for development over the central or
western Caribbean Sea by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Ugh. Time to get back to work on the mapping and analysis. The thing is, I can only do “active” development on this website when there are “active” storms. This was good when I had access to global unified data as the Indian Ocean is in the Southern Hemisphere giving me year-round access to valid data. Having that access allowed me to develop whenever I had a few minutes or more. Now, I’ve got to find a global data source or write pluggable modules that convert the data from the different sources in to a single datatype configured for my site. Thanks for listening. I just figured out what I had to do… pluggable transformative modules. Great. No code repetition for different Theaters. I just have to write a couple different modules for the different global data sources.

Cristobal, June 7th, Landfall Imminent

The projected path of the storm has changed very little over the last 24 hours, and landfall at Dulac/Cocodrie is imminent. By the time you read this, Cristobal could be on land.

With the forward movement of the storm, the storm surge will not be as severe as it could be, but areas outside levy protection are expected to experience about 4 feet of water.

Winds at landfall should be around 50 mph, which is lower than the projected 60 mph.

Rain will be heavy, but coming in bands. Cristobal does not present as a well organized storm — which is good for us.

IMHO, late this evening, we should be in a good position, stormwise. The only thing that could change that is if the storm would stall. Which, there is no indication that it will do that.

I don’t have a Google Map made up. I need to work on automating it. I don’t have enough coffee in my body to do it this morning. ugh.

Thanks,
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 07/0900Z 27.3N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 28.7N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 30.8N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
36H 08/1800Z 33.3N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 36.6N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
60H 09/1800Z 40.9N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
72H 10/0600Z 46.0N 89.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 52.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Forecaster Pasch