2021 Atlantic Storm Ida

Click on the link to access the most current information and contents. Updates are posted shortly after they are released at 4 and 10 am/pm for the duration of the storm. I will be tracking and analyzing 2021 Ida as it approaches using some methods I’ve been working on. The tracks from the NHC have been refined over the years to have very little error. However, using surface-based data from buoys and airports, it is possible to increase the accuracy of the winds, strength, storm surge and overall ferocity of the storm. This analysis is still in development and the products created will not be the quality I wish, but they will be refined over time. Follow this page for updates, and as previously stated, don’t just scroll on FB or other social media. You have to click on the link to access recent information as FB takes a snapshot and only renders that once, missing the current information.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

The following information is from Page 28, of the 2019 TPCG Emergency Guide (link) available at the Terrebonne Office of Emergency Preparedness website (link).

PHASED EVACUATION	During a threat of a hurricane, a phased evacuation will be based on geographic location and time in which tropical storm winds are forecasted to reach the affected areas.
PHASE I	50 Hours before onset of tropical storm winds. Includes areas south of the Intracoastal Waterway. These areas are outside any levee protection system and are vulnerable to Category 1 and 2 storms. During Phase I, there are no route restrictions.
PHASE II	40 Hours before onset of tropical storm winds. Includes areas south of the Mississippi River which are levee protected but remain vulnerable to Category 2 or higher storms. During Phase II, there are no route restrictions.
PHASE III	30 Hours before onset of tropical storm winds. Includes areas on the East Bank of the Mississippi River in the New Orleans Metropolitan Area which are within levee protection system but remain vulnerable to a slow-moving Category 3 or any Category 4 or 5 storm. During Phase III, certain routes will be directed and the Contraflow Plan implemented

Oct. 1, 2020, Morning Update: Time to watch the gulf again

As you can see in the map above, we’ve got two areas of concern in the Caribbean Sea heading our way.

1. Showers and thunderstorms located over the west-central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a tropical wave. A broad area of low
pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the northwest
Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity
of the wave as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development thereafter in that region,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the
system meanders. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and
western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

2. Another tropical wave located a couple hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized
shower activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward
during the next several days where environmental conditions could
become a little more conducive for development over the central or
western Caribbean Sea by early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Ugh. Time to get back to work on the mapping and analysis. The thing is, I can only do “active” development on this website when there are “active” storms. This was good when I had access to global unified data as the Indian Ocean is in the Southern Hemisphere giving me year-round access to valid data. Having that access allowed me to develop whenever I had a few minutes or more. Now, I’ve got to find a global data source or write pluggable modules that convert the data from the different sources in to a single datatype configured for my site. Thanks for listening. I just figured out what I had to do… pluggable transformative modules. Great. No code repetition for different Theaters. I just have to write a couple different modules for the different global data sources.

Cristobal, June 7th, Landfall Imminent

The projected path of the storm has changed very little over the last 24 hours, and landfall at Dulac/Cocodrie is imminent. By the time you read this, Cristobal could be on land.

With the forward movement of the storm, the storm surge will not be as severe as it could be, but areas outside levy protection are expected to experience about 4 feet of water.

Winds at landfall should be around 50 mph, which is lower than the projected 60 mph.

Rain will be heavy, but coming in bands. Cristobal does not present as a well organized storm — which is good for us.

IMHO, late this evening, we should be in a good position, stormwise. The only thing that could change that is if the storm would stall. Which, there is no indication that it will do that.

I don’t have a Google Map made up. I need to work on automating it. I don’t have enough coffee in my body to do it this morning. ugh.

Thanks,
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 07/0900Z 27.3N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 28.7N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 30.8N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
36H 08/1800Z 33.3N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 36.6N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
60H 09/1800Z 40.9N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
72H 10/0600Z 46.0N 89.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 52.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z…MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW$$
Forecaster Beven

Cristobal 2020, Sat. June 6, Morning, Projected Path

Please, forgive the rudimentary nature of the tracking map, I’m trying something new.

Looks like Cristobal is going to be paying us a visit. Landfall is projected to be at Cocodrie, LA, about 11 am, Sunday, June 7, 2020, with winds of 60 mph.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 06/0900Z 23.8N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 25.0N 90.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 26.8N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 28.8N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 30.6N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
60H 08/1800Z 33.2N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 09/0600Z 36.4N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
96H 10/0600Z 45.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 52.5N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[Google_Maps_WD id=2 map=1]

GeoColor image of GoM showing Cristobal, June 6, 2020, NOAA

Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020…CRISTOBAL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES…SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.8N 92.1W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.35 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.8
North, longitude 92.1 West. Cristobal is moving toward the
southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the east this
afternoon. A motion toward the north-northeast and north is
expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center
will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move
inland over eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is
forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains
inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back
over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan…10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas…15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca…5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala…Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador…Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch