Category Archives: 2022

August 9, 2022

Graphics Below

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
    Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more limited associated
    with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of
    the Cabo Verde Islands. While some gradual development of this
    system is possible over the next couple of days, environmental
    conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend.
    This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15
    to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Forecaster Papin

GOES16-GM-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000
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Northern Gulf Coast tropical storm 5 day at 30%

These are the types of storms that provide NOAA and many other weather forecast agencies a ton of trouble to predict and the type that catches the people of coastal Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi Alabama and the Florida panhandle off guard and unprepared.

Weather.JayCTheriot.Com will be paying special attention to this storm and will relay and detail information as it becomes available.

It isn’t time to freak out yet. But, you may want use this as an opportunity to check the status of your weather preparedness.

Thanks,
Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot

From the National Hurricane Center:

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of
days over the northern Gulf of Mexico, partially related to a
decaying frontal boundary currently located over the southeastern
United States. Some slow development of this system is possible if
it remains offshore during the middle and latter part of the week
while it moves little. Regardless of development, heavy rains will
be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coast from Louisiana
to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation change through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Products from the Weather Prediction Center can be found at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and local National Weather Service products can
be found at weather.gov

Forecaster Pasch/Bucci, National Hurricane Center
From the NHC – time of data: 1 am CST, Monday July 11, 2022
MyRadar – appr. 5:30 am showing front and warning area in detail.

Agatha: Potential Pacific-GoM Crossover

I’ve tracked many different storms over the years, but never one that started in the Pacific and then came over into the Gulf of Mexico and re-developed. Will Agatha be my first? I guess I’ll have to just track and find out.

Nothing to worry about at the moment for the Gulf. However, we are watching the development of Agatha. Currently, there is only a 40% chance of development for the Gulf and IF that happens, it could threaten the NW Gulf Coast by the end of this week (Friday, June 3rd, 2022)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop 
across Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the southwest 
Gulf of Mexico in a few days, partially related to the remnants of 
Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Some gradual development 
is possible within this system in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico 
around mid-week or in the northwest Caribbean by the latter part of 
this week as it drifts eastward or northeastward.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rains will be possible across southern 
Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize through the 
week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown