Monthly Archives: October 2020

October 7, 2020

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during
the next few hours. Now is the time to be in your storm shelter.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of western Cuba and the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday. This rainfall
could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. Flash,
urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding is
likely Friday through Saturday across portions of the central Gulf
Coast north into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. The heavy
rainfall will spread northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and
interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next

3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of
Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and
follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane
watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf
Coast later today.


INIT 07/0900Z 20.6N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 23.3N 90.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 24.9N 92.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 26.7N 92.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 29.2N 92.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 32.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 35.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z 38.5N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Oct. 1, 2020, Morning Update: Time to watch the gulf again

As you can see in the map above, we’ve got two areas of concern in the Caribbean Sea heading our way.

1. Showers and thunderstorms located over the west-central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a tropical wave. A broad area of low
pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the northwest
Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity
of the wave as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development thereafter in that region,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the
system meanders. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and
western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
2. Another tropical wave located a couple hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized
shower activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward
during the next several days where environmental conditions could
become a little more conducive for development over the central or
western Caribbean Sea by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.


Ugh. Time to get back to work on the mapping and analysis. The thing is, I can only do “active” development on this website when there are “active” storms. This was good when I had access to global unified data as the Indian Ocean is in the Southern Hemisphere giving me year-round access to valid data. Having that access allowed me to develop whenever I had a few minutes or more. Now, I’ve got to find a global data source or write pluggable modules that convert the data from the different sources in to a single datatype configured for my site. Thanks for listening. I just figured out what I had to do… pluggable transformative modules. Great. No code repetition for different Theaters. I just have to write a couple different modules for the different global data sources.